European Parliament elections do not generate the same wall-to-wall coverage as national votes. Yet the outcome of each election cycle shapes EU legislation, the balance of power in Brussels, and — increasingly — the trajectory of the European project itself. With the next elections scheduled for June 2029, the political landscape that will define that contest is already forming. Here is what the trends tell us.
The rightward shift that keeps shifting
The 2024 European Parliament elections delivered the most significant rightward shift in the chamber’s history, with far-right and nationalist groups increasing their combined seat share substantially. The trend did not reverse in 2025 national elections across the EU — in France, Austria and the Netherlands, right-wing and far-right parties either entered government or consolidated their opposition positions. As we examined in depth in our analysis of the far right’s rise, the underlying drivers — immigration anxiety, cost-of-living pressure, cultural backlash and distrust of mainstream institutions — show no sign of abating.
For the 2029 elections, this creates a base from which right-leaning groups are likely to contest, rather than a ceiling from which they will retreat. The centre-right European People’s Party, which has historically dominated the Parliament, faces the strategic challenge of whether to maintain its cordon sanitaire against the far right or seek situational alliances to pass legislation.
How European Parliament elections actually work
The Parliament’s 720 seats are distributed among member states roughly in proportion to population, with smaller countries guaranteed a minimum number of MEPs. Each country uses its own national voting system — some proportional, some with thresholds, some with preferential voting — which means European elections are in practice 27 simultaneous national elections conducted under a loosely shared framework.
Turnout has historically been low — around 42% across the EU for decades — but climbed to 51% in 2019 and held at 51.1% in 2024, suggesting a genuine reengagement with European-level politics, particularly among younger voters mobilised by climate concerns and democratic anxiety.
What MEPs actually do
The Parliament co-legislates with the Council of the EU on most areas of EU law, scrutinises the European Commission, approves the EU budget, and — critically — confirms or rejects the Commission President and the full College of Commissioners. This last power, used dramatically in 2019 when the Parliament rejected several proposed commissioners, gives MEPs genuine leverage over the executive branch of EU governance.
The Parliament also sets the European agenda in ways that are underappreciated. The 2024–2029 Parliament’s early prioritisation of competitiveness — responding to the Draghi report — shifted the Commission’s focus measurably. The 2029 Parliament will inherit the 2040 climate law, the defence spending debate, and whatever state the Ukraine conflict is in — and its composition will determine how those issues are handled legislatively.
What to watch heading toward 2029
Three trends are worth tracking now. First, whether the centre-left alliance — Socialists and Democrats combined with Greens and liberals — can rebuild the coalition that passed the Green Deal legislation in 2019–2024. Second, whether new transnational political movements emerge to contest the elections as genuinely European rather than national parties. Third, whether the expansion of EU competencies in defence and security creates new political fault lines in the Parliament that cut across the traditional left-right spectrum.
European elections feel distant until they are not. 2029 is three years away — which, in European political time, is approximately two coalition crises and one economic shock.
